No. For most households in Great Britain, energy bills are going up this winter, not down. Ofgem raised the price cap to £1,723 a year for a typical household on 1 October 2026, up £60 from £1,663. Forecasters expect a far larger rise on 1 January 2027, with estimates ranging from about £2,000 to £2,185 a year.
The Autumn Budget on 28 October brought some help, including a £100 payment and a longer VAT cut on electricity. None of it stops the January increase. Relief that could genuinely lower bills, such as scrapping gas standing charges, is not due until 2027 at the earliest.
- Bills are rising, not falling: Ofgem’s price cap went up £60 to £1,723 a year on 1 October 2026.
- A bigger rise is coming in January: Forecasts put the next cap at about £1,999 to £2,185, with Ofgem confirming the figure by 25 November.
- The Budget’s £100 payment won’t cover it: Households in council tax bands A to D in England get the payment from January 2027, which is a fraction of the forecast rise.
- Real relief is further off: The electricity VAT cut now runs to July 2027, and gas standing charges could be removed as early as 2027.
- Gas prices are driving it, so compare deals now: The Middle East conflict has pushed up wholesale gas, so check fixed and variable tariffs before January.
Where Bills Stand Today
The energy price cap does not limit what you pay in total. It limits the unit rates and standing charges a supplier can put on a standard variable tariff, and it is quoted for a “typical” household paying by Direct Debit. Use more than that and you pay more than the headline figure.
The cap currently in force (1 October to 31 December 2026), according to Uswitch and the HomeOwners Alliance:
| Electricity | Gas |
| Unit rate | 26.32p per kWh |
| Standing charge | 54.83p per day |
The step from £1,663 to £1,723 is £60, which works out at about 3.6%. Ofgem and most headlines rounded it to 4%.
There is a catch when comparing this number with older ones. Ofgem has lowered the amount of energy it treats as typical. Uswitch now uses 2,500 kWh of electricity and 9,500 kWh of gas, where the older basis was 2,700 kWh and 11,500 kWh. On the old basis, Money to the Masses calculated that the October cap would have been £1,935. So the figure of £1,723 may look lower than last October’s £1,755, but it is not a cheaper bill. The two describe different households.
Uswitch’s estimates for three household sizes, using current rates:
| Home size | Gas (kWh) | Electricity (kWh) | Estimated annual dual fuel bill |
| 1–2 bedrooms | 6,000 | 1,600 | £1,207.78 |
| 3–4 bedrooms | 9,500 | 2,500 | £1,723.61 |
| 5+ bedrooms | 14,000 | 3,800 | £2,424.42 |
For context, bills remain far below the crisis peak. The cap reached £4,059 in January 2023, according to BBC analysis of Ofgem figures.
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Why Bills Are Rising: Gas, And A War Far Away
Britain sets its electricity price largely by the cost of gas, because gas-fired power stations are often the last plant switched on to meet demand. When gas gets dearer, both fuels follow. That is why the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero says plainly that bills have risen this year because of the conflict in the Middle East.
The global picture explains the scale. Market reports in late October put the Dutch TTF benchmark, the main European gas price, above €100 per megawatt-hour. That is the first time since December 2022 and roughly three times the level before the Iran war began in February. Fitch Ratings has said the Strait of Hormuz carried about 20% of global liquefied natural gas before the conflict. With those shipments disrupted, European and Asian buyers are competing for the same cargoes while European storage heads into winter at low levels. Analysts quoted in recent coverage expect European prices to stay high for at least a year, even if the fighting eases.
The cap reacts with a delay. Ofgem calculates it from wholesale costs seen over an assessment window that runs from mid-August to mid-November. Cornwall Insight said on 30 September that the price rises already seen in September were locked into the January calculation, which is why it described a January increase as all but certain. What remains uncertain is the size.
What The January 2027 Price Cap Could Be
Ofgem is due to confirm the January to March cap by 25 November 2026. Until then, every figure is a forecast and forecasts have been climbing.
| Forecaster | Date | Forecast for January–March 2027 |
| Cornwall Insight | 30 Sep | £1,999 (+£276, +16%) |
| EDF | 6 Oct | £2,083 |
| British Gas | 15 Oct | £2,185 |
| E.ON Next | 26 Oct | £2,183 |
Cornwall Insight’s figure was published before October’s further rise in gas prices, so it may now look low. Its principal consultant, Dr Craig Lowrey, called the expected increase the biggest price cap rise in four years. If the higher forecasts prove right, the cap would reach its highest level since early 2023. Forecasts this far out are not reliable to the pound, though. Cornwall’s last forecast for October was £1,709 and the real figure was £1,723, but that was a final forecast made after the window had closed. January’s window is still open.
What The Autumn Budget Actually Did
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero published its own summary on 28 October. These are the measures that matter for household bills:
| Measure | What it does | When |
| Household Energy Payment | £100 for households in council tax bands A to D in England, paid into bank accounts, covering up to 20 million households | From January 2027 |
| Council discretionary fund | A further £100 million for councils to help households outside bands A to D | Details set locally |
| Electricity VAT cut | VAT on domestic electricity removed from 1 October 2026, saving about £45 a year on average. Extended to July 2027. Gas stays at 5% | Now until July 2027 |
| Gas standing charges | Ofgem asked to remove them as early as 2027, with costs moved into the unit rate | 2027 at the earliest |
| Energy debt relief | One-off write-off for vulnerable households with debt built up since the 2022–24 crisis, if they re-engage with their supplier | Ofgem to consult on design |
| Warm Home Discount | £150 for eligible households on means-tested benefits | This winter |
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive extra funding and decide for themselves how to use it. The £100 payment is not deducted from your energy rates, so it does not change the price cap. If you pay council tax by Direct Debit in bands A to D, the government says you need not do anything. Otherwise your council will contact you. The government also warns that nobody except your council should ask you to claim it, so treat unexpected texts or calls with suspicion.
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Do These Measures Bring Bills Down?
Not in the way the headline question implies. Take the numbers side by side. The forecasts above imply a rise of roughly £276 to £462 a year for a typical household. A one-off £100 covers somewhere between a fifth and a little over a third of that. Campaigners quoted by PA described the payment as barely denting the predicted January rise, and noted that because it goes straight into bank accounts it may not be spent on heating.
The VAT cut is real money, but it was already built into October’s cap and the January forecasts, so it offers no extra relief in January. Its extension to July 2027 mainly keeps bills from jumping when the original end date arrived.
Gas standing charges are the most interesting change and the most misunderstood. The cost does not disappear. It moves into the price of each unit of gas. The government says a typical household on median gas use will gain, and the Treasury estimate reported by the HomeOwners Alliance is that about 60% of gas households could save an average of £45 a year. The flip side is that high gas users could pay more. The government has said it will set out targeted help for vulnerable households who cannot avoid heavy use. It has not yet explained how the change will work for fixed tariffs or prepayment customers.
On the longer term, the government says it wants energy costs in line with Europe within ten years, through market reform and a new body called Great British Grid to speed up network building. That is a goal, not a forecast, and it does nothing for this winter.
Should You Fix Your Energy Price Now?
The honest answer depends on how much a surprise would hurt you.
A fixed tariff keeps your rates the same for the length of the deal, so a January rise would not reach you. In August, Ofgem said fixed deals were available more than £100 below the October cap. The picture has moved since. Fixed prices follow wholesale gas, and at least one major supplier raised its 12-month fixed rate by about £48 a year on 27 October. Compare the whole market on the day you decide rather than relying on any figure printed here.
The risk runs the other way too. If wholesale prices fall, a fixed deal can end up costing more than the variable cap. Check the length of the deal and any exit fees, and be careful with long fixes that look attractive only because of today’s alarming forecasts.
Practical Steps Before January
- Check your tariff. If it is called standard, variable or flexible, the cap applies to you. Great Britain only: Northern Ireland has a separate market.
- Compare fixed and variable deals. Use an Ofgem-accredited comparison service and look at exit fees.
- Look up your council tax band on GOV UK. If you are in A to D, the £100 should arrive from January.
- Check Warm Home Discount eligibility. About six million households qualify, according to the HomeOwners Alliance, and most receive it automatically.
- Take a meter reading on 31 December so December usage is billed at the lower rates, not estimated across the change.
- If you are in debt to your supplier, contact them now. Eligible households can have debt written off once the Debt Relief Scheme is finalised, provided they re-engage.
- Trim usage where it is cheap to do so. The Energy Saving Trust figure quoted by the HomeOwners Alliance is that lowering the thermostat from 22°C to 21°C can save around £120 a year, and professional draught-proofing can save about £45.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Are UK energy bills going down in 2026?
No. The price cap rose in July and again in October 2026, and a further, larger rise is forecast for January 2027.
What is the energy price cap now?
£1,723 a year for a typical dual fuel household paying by Direct Debit, from 1 October to 31 December 2026.
When will the January 2027 cap be announced?
Ofgem is due to confirm it by 25 November 2026. It takes effect on 1 January.
How much could bills rise in January?
Forecasts run from about £1,999 to £2,185 a year, a rise of roughly 16% to 27%. The final figure is not known yet.
Will the £100 payment cover the increase?
No. It is a one-off payment and the forecast rise is several times larger for a typical household.
Will bills fall after January?
Nobody can say reliably. Analysts expect European gas prices to stay elevated for at least a year, and a lot depends on the Strait of Hormuz. Gas standing charge reform in 2027 could help lower gas users, but not everyone.
The Bottom line
Energy bills are not heading down. They are climbing for the second quarter running, and the next move is expected to be a large one. The Budget softens the edges for millions of households but leaves the January increase in place. The sensible response is practical: know what your tariff is, compare deals before 25 November, claim what you are entitled to, and keep an eye on Ofgem’s announcement.
Sources & References
- GOV UK (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero): What the Autumn Budget 2026 means for your energy bills
- HomeOwners Alliance: Will energy prices go down in 2026?
- Uswitch: Average gas and electricity bills in the UK
- Cornwall Insight: 16% price cap rise forecast in January
- Ofgem: Energy price cap, the regulator’s page for the confirmed cap
